基于城市建设用地扩张预测的城郊村土地经营权流转最优期限确定

确定城郊村土地经营权流转最优期限有利于流转双方做出符合其最大收益的期限选择,降低流转过程的交易成本。以理性选择理论为指导,构建城郊村土地经营权流转最优期限分析框架,以长沙市为例,运用CA-Markov模型模拟城市建设用地扩张,预测城郊村土地征收时间,并选取长沙市望城区某城郊村进行实证分析。分析认为,城郊村土地经营权流转最优期限是土地征收前流转双方收益均达到最大时对应的期限。土地征收前流转次数不同,其最优期限不同。流转双方可根据收益预期和主观意愿,参考城市建设用地扩张趋势预测土地被征收时间以确定最优流转期限。CA-Markov模型在确定土地经营权流转最优期限方面有一定的优势。     

不同水分条件下不同抗旱性苦荞根系生长规律研究

为了探明不同抗旱性苦荞根系形态和生理特性与抗旱性的关系,为干旱胁迫下苦荞高产优质栽培管理及抗旱品种的筛选提供理论依据,采用人工控水的方法,研究并分析了正常供水、重度干旱条件下不同抗旱性苦荞品种迪庆苦荞（耐旱）、黑丰1号（旱敏感）根系生长形态和生理指标变化。结果表明,干旱胁迫显著增加了苦荞根冠比、根系丙二醛（MDA）和脯氨酸（Pro）含量,而最大根长、根体积、根表面积显著降低。随着生育期推进,各处理苦荞最大根长、根体积、根表面积、MDA含量等指标均呈现逐渐增加趋势,根冠比、Pro含量呈现先增后减趋势。品种之间方差分析结果表明,重度干旱胁迫条件下,各测定时期迪庆苦荞的根冠比、最大根长、根体积、根表面积、根系Pro含量均显著高于黑丰1号,MDA含量则显著低于黑丰1号。回归分析表明,不同处理苦荞根表面积、最大根长等指标在测定时期内随时间变化的数学模型均符合指数函数,根体积、MDA含量等指标均符合一元二次方程的规律。干旱胁迫下苦荞根系与地上部分的生长均受到抑制,且表现为对地上部的影响大于对根系;与黑丰1号相比,迪庆苦荞耐旱性更强。     

中国粮食进口安全综合评价研究——基于超效率DEA模型

在对粮食及粮食进口安全内涵加以界定的基础上,从粮食数量、粮食质量、粮食价格、粮食贸易、国家经济、生态环境6个方面分析中国粮食进口安全的影响因素,基于超效率DEA模型构建中国粮食进口安全评价模型。对1992—2015年中国粮食进口安全状况进行评价,结果表明,1992—2015年中国粮食进口处于安全状态,粮食进口对我国粮食价格安全和生态安全的影响程度较小,对数量安全、质量安全、贸易安全和经济安全的影响程度较大。     

Spatial disparities in neighborhood public tree coverage: Do modes of transportation matter?

Urban green space has various environmental and ecological benefits, and uneven access to such amenities has drawn substantial attention from policy makers in developing sustainable community planning. In this study, we illustrate the spatial distribution of publicly owned and maintained trees in Edmonton, Canada and assess neighborhoods’ heterogeneous tree availability by using the container approach. Through spatial regression models, we further investigate the association of neighborhood public tree availability with socio-economic status (SES). We contribute to the existing literature by taking resident modes of transportation into consideration, in addition to many other commonly examined SES such as household income and ethnicity. Another unique contribution of this study is that we distinguish trees planted on different location types (i.e., boulevard, park, and buffer areas) when exploring the unequal coverage across neighborhoods and among different SES groups. Key results include: (1) a general examination without differentiating location types can lead to misleading results and thus provide inappropriate policy recommendations; (2) resident modes of transportation is a critical factor associated with a neighborhood’s public tree coverage; and (3) there exists evident spatial dependence on public tree availability between neighborhoods. The results from this study provide important information to better understand the issue and to allocate public resource (such as tree coverage) more efficiently and effectively to support sustainable community development.     

Modeling height-diameter relationship for artificial monoculture Metasequoia glyptostroboides in sub-tropic coastal megacity Shanghai,China

Tree height is a key variable in forest monitoring studies and for forest management. However, tree height measurement is time consuming, and the recommended procedure is to use estimates from tree height (H) - diameter at breast height (DBH) models. Increasingly, H-DBH models are being developed for urban forests, providing tools to forest management and ecosystem services estimation. Here, we compared model forms and approaches for predicting H as a function of DBH and additional stand level covariates variables. Four model forms were evaluated: (i) basic models (which only used DBH as predictor variable); (ii) generalized models (which used DBH and other predictor variables based on the best basic model); (iii) a mixed-effects model based on the best basic model; and (iv) a mixed-effects model based on the generalized model. Several sampling designs aimed at minimizing height measurement were tested in terms of accuracy and applicability. Taking predicted accuracy and investigation cost into account, we recommend generalized non-linear mixed-effects model (NLME) when there were two or less tree height measurements taken in a given stand. The basic NLME model could be calibrated when there were 3 or more tree height measurements, depending on the required level of accuracy and investigation cost. Additionally, we first reported that soil pH as a covariate variable in H-DBH model and our generalized NLME model implied that the difference in the H-DBH relationship caused by pH varies among different stands. This finding may be attributable to differing biological properties of the similar alkaline tolerance species.     

扬州市稻田高效种养模式应用现状及发展对策

近年来,扬州市根据国家农业供给侧结构性调整要求,充分利用自然资源禀赋,开展了多种形式稻田种养模式的示范与推广。本文阐述了扬州市稻鸭共作、稻虾共作以及稻田改作荷藕-虾共作等高效种养模式的应用现状,以单纯种稻为对照,比较了各种模式的生产效益;分析了稻田高效种养模式示范推广过程中存在的主要问题,并提出了促进稻田高效种养模式可持续发展的若干对策。     

Cohort‐specific variation in juvenile coho salmon habitat use

In this study, we examined summer and fall freshwater rearing habitat use by juvenile coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) in the quickly urbanising Big Lake drainage in south‐central Alaska. Habitat use was assessed by regressing fish count data against habitat survey information across thirty study sites using generalised linear mixed models. Habitat associations were examined by age‐0 and age‐1+ cohorts separately, providing an opportunity to compare habitat use across different juvenile coho salmon life stages during freshwater rearing. Regression results indicated that the age‐0 cohorts were strongly associated with shallow, wide stream reaches with in‐stream vegetation, whereas age‐1+ cohorts were associated with deeper stream reaches. Furthermore, associations between fork length and habitat characteristics suggest cohort‐specific habitat use patterns are distinct from those attributable to fish size. Habitat use information generated from this study is being used to guide optimal fish passage restoration planning in the Big Lake drainage. Evidence for habitat use partitioning by age cohort during freshwater juvenile rearing indicates that pooling age cohorts into a single “juvenile” stage for the purposes of watershed management may mask important habitat use dynamics.     

A stochastic surplus production model in continuous time

Surplus production modelling has a long history as a method for managing data‐limited fish stocks. Recent advancements have cast surplus production models as state‐space models that separate random variability of stock dynamics from error in observed indices of biomass. We present a stochastic surplus production model in continuous time (SPiCT), which in addition to stock dynamics also models the dynamics of the fisheries. This enables error in the catch process to be reflected in the uncertainty of estimated model parameters and management quantities. Benefits of the continuous‐time state‐space model formulation include the ability to provide estimates of exploitable biomass and fishing mortality at any point in time from data sampled at arbitrary and possibly irregular intervals. We show in a simulation that the ability to analyse subannual data can increase the effective sample size and improve estimation of reference points relative to discrete‐time analysis of aggregated annual data. Finally, subannual data from five North Sea stocks are analysed with particular focus on using residual analysis to diagnose model insufficiencies and identify necessary model extensions such as robust estimation and incorporation of seasonality. We argue that including all known sources of uncertainty, propagation of that uncertainty to reference points and checking of model assumptions using residuals are critical prerequisites to rigorous fish stock management based on surplus production models.     

Stability analysis of seven agronomic traits for soybean [(Glycine max (L.) Merr.] Tokachi nagaha and its derived cultivars using the AMMI model

The stabilities of seven agronomic traits were analyzed and the general stabilities of soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.] accessions were evaluated based on the additive main effects and multiplicative interactions (AMMI) model using the founder parent Tokachi nagaha and 137 of its derived cultivars as materials. The objective was to provide a theoretical basis for effectively using germplasm in soybean breeding and production. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) showed that genotype, environment, and genotype by environment interactions were significantly different for each trait. The first three interaction principal components axes (IPCA) were highly significant, accounting for 61.28–70.00% of the total variation. The stability differed for the different traits. 50 cultivars with high general stabilities were identified. The general stability of Tokachi nagaha was moderate, as the stability coefficients (D_i) of its seven traits were relatively high; this must be considered by breeders using this cultivar as a breeding parent. There were significant positive correlations between the phenotypic values and their own D_i values for number of branches per plant, number of pods per plant, number of seeds per plant, and seed weight per plant. This would lead to the expectation that the phenotypic stability would be lower when a cultivar had more branches, pods, seeds, and high per plant yields. Thus, it appears difficult to breed cultivars that simultaneously have high yields and high stability.